determined's blog

Ya Gotta Have Confidence......

Many years ago I played baseball in college and hoped for a professional career.  I wasn't the hardest throwing pitcher in the league and I wasn't the biggest or strongest kid on the team either.  But I knew what I was doing on the mound and had terrific success over a four year career.  I managed to beat the best team in our league, the national champs the year before I enrolled, not once, not twice, but three times.  Our team was pretty mediocre and we hadn't beaten the perennial league champs in over twenty years.  And I didn't just beat them, I shut them down by scores of 2-1 and 2-0 my sophomore and junior years.  The shutout was dominating as three of their starting players went on to play in the major leagues.  While I was in school, a football player and I got into a discussion on confidence.  OK, we had been drinking quite a bit, but the discussion was memorable because my roommate quoted parts of that discussion back to me about TWENTY YEARS LATER!!  We were discussing basketball since both the football player and I played in a rec league on campus.  Somehow the question was:  Do you think you could beat Jerry West one-on-one in a game to 10?  Neither of us could, of course, Jerry being the hall of fame point guard on the world champion Lakers at the time.  Also 6' 4" and about 220 lbs. compared to both of us being under 6' and less than 200 lbs. by considerable.  In fact, I doubt we could have taken Jerry even if it was two-on-one. 

But that wasn't the point of discussion.

The point was that I kept insisting that if I were to walk onto the court for a game with Jerry, then I would have totally and completely believed that I was going to win the game.  No doubt about it.  The football player couldn't believe it:

  "You mean that you think you are a better player than Jerry West?"  He asked over and over again.

  "No." I explained patiently several times.  "But if I were to play him, I would believe that I would win while we were playing.  I just don't consider losing while the game is going on.  I ALWAYS feel I am the best player on the field or court when I am playing."

And it's true to this day.  I may be arrogant or simply confident, but I don't participate in contests of any kind without believing I am the best player and i will win.

Poker is no different.  You must believe, not merely think, that you are the best player at the table and will use all of your skills to beat your opponents.  Don't worry about the results.  Play each hand, each street, each card to the best of your ability and the results will take care of themselves. 

Sometimes People Make Mistakes........

It is early Sunday morning and I am sleeping in since I don't have to be at the office.  The buzzer goes off several times and I drag myself over to the intercom to see who would be so rude as to disturb my slumber. 

"Hello?"

"John Smith?" (not my real name, but close enough for the story)

"Yeah, who's calling?"

"May I come up, please?"

"And you are?"

"Bill Jones. I have something for you to sign."

"One moment." 

At this point, I turned to my wife and asked if she knew a "Bill Jones"?  She assured me she did not.  So I went out on the balcony, overlooking the entry, and hollered down at the person.

"I'll be right down." I yelled off the balcony and he backed away from the door and looked up.  Short, small, soft looking, holding papers and a briefcase.  Didn't look very threatening.  I went downstairs to see what he wanted.

"Mr Smith? Mr John J. Smith?  You've been served."  He recited this as he handed me the stack of papers he was holding.  I glanced at them quickly and confirmed what I already suspected.

"Sorry, wrong John Smith.  Understandable, there's quite a few of us and people get me mixed up all the time."  I explained as I handed the papers back to him.

"Are you saying you're not John Smith?"  He asked.

"I'm not John J. Smith, sir.  My name is John A. Smith." 

He looked at the papers again and then back at me.  I could tell he wasn't convinced, but he was just a server, he wasn't a threat.  I was young and I knew I could beat the crap out of him if I needed to.

"Come on." I ordered as I walked down the sidewalk to below my third floor apartment.  He followed behind.

"Honey!"  I hollered up to my wife.  "Toss the phone book down here."

The yellow pages for L.A. came flying down a few seconds later and I didn't even think about trying to catch the large object.  I waited for it to plop on the grass and went and retrieved them.  Called Bill over and started looking.

It's a strange feeling to be looking yourself up in the phone book.  Something I had never actually done before.  And the L.A. phone book sure had a ton of  'John Smiths' listed.  I discovered something truly amazing.  Two streets north of us, at the EXACT same street number, was a listing for John J. Smith.  Listed immediately below John A. Smith.  Yours truly.  Well, whadda ya know.  A half page of John Smiths and the two of us, with the same number only two blocks apart, are listed consecutively in the book.  Oh well.

We looked at the papers again and confirmed he was looking for John J.  I also took the opportunity to look at the papers.  Seems brother John was being sued for some sort of fraud involving a used Cadillac and repair shop.  The process server went off in search of the right John Smith.  I went back to sleep.

About two weeks later, my wife and I are just enjoying the weekend and reading the paper, when she hands me a section and says: "You might want to read this article."  and pointed to the middle of the front page.  It didn't take long to see why.  The night before, someone had decided that Mr. John Smith and his wife had become more than an incovenience.  They had kidnapped them both, bound and gagged them, drove them into the desert and executed them with a few bullets in the head.  WOW!!!  The article went on to say that the Smiths had been operating an automotive repair shop in the valley and he been using the business to smuggle drugs into the country.

I had been pretty impressed with myself that I had been able to convince a process server that he had the wrong guy.  But I have no illusions that I would have been able to similarly convince a mistaken hitman.  Sorry for the Smiths, but dang glad the hitman didn't make the same error.  Sometimes appearances can be deceiving, sometimes not.

Good Luck at the tables!

How To Play Winning Online Poker.......

It's time to review some rules for playing online poker.  We have mentioned some of the things in the past that can help you online and today we are listing a set of rules to help you play.  Good Luck at the tables!!!!  This guide applies only to small stakes NL games online, while appropriate for almost all games in general.

RULES:

1.  BE PATIENT:  This simply means wait for the cards to come, don't play every hand and don't chase the hand.  An online pro is fond of mentioning that when people ask him for advice on how to play better poker, he responds "Play fewer hands".  Good advice.  So good I think I will use it for rule number two.

2   BE SELECTIVE:  Wait for the appropriate starting hands and know what hands you wish to start play with depending on your position.  I find that if I start with the top11% of all starting hands, tighten up in the first three table positions, loosen up in the last three and check my stats to make sure I'm seeing the percentage of flops I expect, then I will win over a period of several hours and many sessions regardless.  Playing any two cards, any two connectors or any two suited will result in losing sessions each time.  Read Dan Harrington's books on how to play cash games for a good discussion on why you only play slective starting hands depending on your position on the table. 

3.  BE AGGRESSIVE:  This can seem to contradict earlier advice at times, but it pays to be aggressive in poker.  This means there are times to raise when you don't have the best hand at the moment. There are times to RE-raise when you suspect your opponent can not possibly (or is unlikely) to have the hand he represents.  And there are times to bluff when you have nothing and still feel you can take the pot.  You stil want to be patient and selective, but if you combine that with patient, selective AND aggressive, you should be a winner during most of your cash game sessions.

4.  FOLD:  Anytime you wish to stop playing a hand in poker, you simply throw your cards into the muck and you are done.  Nothing forces you to keep playing cards that can not or will not win.  In fact, you can toss WINNING cards into the muck if you so choose.  Learn to recognize when you are probably behind in the hand and fold.  Stubborness will quickly cost you lots of money.  If you don't feel you have the best hand at the moment and someone pushes "all in", it is time to fold your cards.  This is known as "laying down" your hand and will save you more money than you can possibly imagine.  If you don't fold when you are beat, you will be "stacked" (lose all of your chips in one hand) over and over again.

5.  BELIEVE BLUFFS:  The board is Kc-xs-xs and you have As xs in your hand.  Your opponent makes a pot size bet and you call because you have the nut flush draw and believe the implied odds make it a reasonable call.  The turn card is xd and the board now offers nothing for you except the flush draw.  Your opponent pushes all in.  Do you call?  What if he is bluffing and has nothing?  Is your Ace high good?  Might be, but this is an easy fold.  Let them bluff you most of the time, because even at the lower limits, players will rarely make long bluffs, lasting over the course of the hand.  More likely, MUCH more likely, is your opponent had a K that paired the board and probably a flush draw himself and simply wanted you to call because he felt his pair of KK had him well ahead and you would be chasing a flush draw.  In other words, he wasn't really bluffing.  Most of the time players are only "semi-bluffing", meaning they have a hand or a really good draw, but it isn't a great hand and can be beat.  The tough decision for you will be when you have the top pair with top kicker, or an overpair.  If someone pushes or bets a large amount, then you are probably beat, but you may have to call once or twice before you know if your opponent actually has you beat or is bluffing.  But if you don't have top pair, then you need to lay your hand down.  If he shows you a bluff, so what.  You already knew that was possible and how he played it, it just confirms what you suspected.  Don't chase draws!  Know the odds of hitting your hand and if the pot is not offering you a reasonable return on your bet, fold.  Also, remember that other players are watching you play and you will get paid off down the road.  If you fold to someone's aggressive bets on the turn or river because you didn't hit your hand, it is very likely that someone else will try and bluff you on the turn or river when they miss their hand and you are holding a set, then you can stack them. 

Learning From Others....

I have mentioned before that I like to read the blogs on PokerPages because some of the writers are absolutely terrific.  A new writer has joined the group and I learned something from him yesterday that puts me in a quandry.  He wrote his blog about his losing streak and how he is constantly getting bad beats.  To illustrate this, he randomly picked a two hour time period and posted all of his big hands, dividing them between the losers and the winners.  There were many losers and only a few winners.  That was fine.  I read the blog and thought I might write directly to him and offer some advice.  It isn't necessary, of course, as he will receive better advice from his buddies and fellow poker players on the website.  You see, it is apparent why he is losing.  He has a giant hole in his game and will lose all of his money if he doesn't fix it.  Then he started boasting about his past play since summer and I lost all desire to help him.  Let him lose it all.  So that's one reason.  Another reason not to tell him is he might get better and take my money down the road.  I don't want that.  But the real reason I don't want to tell him is personal, I have the exact same problem he does and I want to fix it for myself before I go giving advice to others.  His problem, as described in the hands he posted, is that he is playing $1/2 and $2/4NL and can't accept that other players will play hands that should probably be folded.  He/I will raise pre flop, bet post flop and raise and re-raise throughout the hand as if our opponents are sensible players and capable of laying down draws, top pairs and two pairs when it should be clear they are beat.  They won't.  They will (correctly) call with just about any two cards pre flop and lay the hand down only of they miss it completely.  You will do all of the betting, indicating you hit your hand, and they will call only if they have you beat or have a draw.  They will push on the river if you are beat, they will push before that if they think they have a decent draw, and they will bluff post flop occassionally just because they know you will fold if you miss.  You are playing right into them because you are doing all of the betting.  They can slow play just about everything until they hit.  Combine that with a few bad beats and suck outs and you have a major losing streak.  Too bad. 

Fortunately, Shaun Tobin will get better advice from someone more qualified than I am in poker.  Someone else will contact him and say: "Shaun.  Why not ease back on some of the pre flop raises if they aren't thinning the field?  And stop going all in when your set is up against a straight on the board and a flush draw as well.  Let the other player do some of the betting once in a while and see if it tells you the strength of his hand.  If you slow play once in a while, other players will become a bit wary of your play and you will be able to steal a bit more.  Also, if they play back at you, you will know they have strong hands and can stop pouring money into the pot.  Just a thought, Shaun, but $1/2 NL is similar to limit poker, players rarely fold if they feel they have any draw at all, bluffs and big raises don't work very well unless they hold up through the river.  It becomes easier as you go up to higher limits."

Meanwhile, I'm glad I ran across his post.  I think I'll follow his friend's advice, because I am having some of those same problems myself.  Good luck Shaun, I hope your game improves soon.

Formulating a Strategy....

As we get closer and closer to the WSOP, we need to have a clear plan as to how we are going to play in the Main Event.  If you've been following this blog, you know that I started with roughly $1,200 on PokerStars and have had a very difficult time increasing that amount enough to reach my stated goal of $10K to buy in for the M.E.  However, I am going to go and play in the WSOP regardless of whether or not I win the money online.  I have the money.  But I want to get better at playing NL poker and I want to be able to play winning online poker, to consistently profit from playing.  As I learn more and more about the game, I want to write down some of the lessons I learn.  We may end up writing some of these things down over and over again, but that is because they are important and the essence of my strategy.

 

1.  I am going  to begin the tournament playing tight-aggressive.  This means I will be patient and wait for top 11% starting hands and then play them aggressively.  Aggressively means I will be raising preflop if I am the first to act and reraising if someone else has come in before me.  If I have the best hand to start, I should be trying to get chips into the pot until I find out my hand isn't the best.

2.  I probably won't be stealing much in the early levels.  I would prefer to find out something about the rest of the table before I try to steal.

3.  I intend to lay down a few hands early if I even suspect the other player has a decent hand, and try to get to showdown with at least one hand where I can show a solid starting hand, even if I lose a small pot.

4.  I will play that strategy the entire first day unless the table conditions indicate that I need to loosen up and become more active.

5.  The second day I will begin playing tight aggressive and then begin stealing blinds as the day progresses. 

6.  I won't allow myself to be knocked out of the tournament with anything less than an overpair to the board when I go all in.

 

Regardless of how I finish the tournament, I will be gracious to other players and enjoy the event.

 

PokerStars Balance:

March 28:   $2,607.82

March 27:     2,469.92

Loose Lips Sink Stacks......

A quick lesson here this morning.  I sat at a table on PokerStars and waited for the blinds to come around and I could begin play.  In the chat box, a player was talking about a previous hand and how he had layed down QQ to another player because he wasn't crazy enough to bluff with nothing, unlike another player, at the table, whom he then referenced.  Hmmm, interesting seeing how I knew none of the three players chatting.  A few hands into the session I came upon the third player, the one described as loose and prone to bluffs.  I had AQ on the button and he limped in for $4 before it folded to me and I kicked it up to $20.  He called and we saw the flop J-A-3 with two clubs.  He checked it to me and I popped it for about $32 and he called.  Hmmm, could I have run into AJ being slow played a bit?  Maybe.  The pot about $110, the next card was a 7 and he checked again.  I checked behind to see if he would lead out after the river.  The river was a T which worried me a bit now as KQ would have just filled the straight.  But no clubs meant no flush and I liked my hand.  He did too, betting about $50, so I just called and he showed A-6 offsuit and I took the pot.  He seemed a bit loose with that hand, not raising pre flop, calling a raise with ace rag, checking and calling.  He should have laid it down several times.  Later, I had KK in the small blind and he raises to $12.  I reraise to $36 and he calls.  Flop is 4-5-7 with two diamonds.  He bets $40 and I double it to $80.  He calls.  Could he really be playing small cards when I raised pre flop?  Diamond draw with big cards?  I think at this point I feel he is a weak, calling machine and we need to get the money in the middle.  Turn is a J , no diamond, and he checks to me.  I bet $100 and he raises to $200.  I call and the river is a 9, no diamond.  Could he have played connectors that hit a straight?  Aces?  He went all in and I called.  He turned over 6-6 with a diamond and I took down a pot of about $1,050.  He left the table and the other two players started hammering the poor fish in the chat box.  I wish he had stuck around long enough for me to makes notes on him.  I'll have to find him later.  But the point is, I would not have known or suspected he was such a fish if the other players had not been chatting.  It allowed me to play much more aggressively with someone I knew nothing about.  Unfortunately for them, I got all the money and they got nothing.  Be careful what you say at the table, other eyes are watching.

Update...

PokerStars Balance:

March 26:   $1,675.82

March 25:     1,722.52

March 24:     2,344.52

March 23:     2,310.22

March 22:     2,302.52

March 21:     1,891.22

March 20:     1,543.32

March 19:     1,269.12

March 18:     1,168.72

March 17:     2,348.37

Live And Learn.....

Let me set this up for you because it will be a little difficult to describe without a table graphic to illustrate.  It was a turbo-satellite tourney to the Sunday Million$ on PokerStars that I like to play.  And the tourney was winding down to the bubble with about 10 players left to be eliminated.

Seat 1:  $599

Seat 2:  $3,500

Seat 3:  $7,950  (button)

Seat 4:  $3,500  (small blind)

Seat 5:  $2,800  (big blind)

Seat 6:  $5,000

Seat 7:  $9,250

Seat 8:  $5,000

Seat 9:  $8,250  (me)

The blinds are $1000/2000 with $75 ante. Blinds go up every 5 minutes.

At this point, the BB writes in the chat that everyone should play as slow as possible to help him and others at the table to get into the money as the other players wipe each other out at the other tables.  I saw the post and thought nobody would be stupid enough to comply as it would only help seats 4 and 5 and kill those of us facing the blinds.  Boy was I wrong.  Seat 6 immediately stalled for the max, as did 7.  I figured seat 7 could afford to because he was going to get by the blinds no mater what.  But when seat 8 stalled I thought he was insane.  I folded a crappy hand immediately and then watched seat 1 go all in, which made sense if he had any hand at all.  But then seat 2, 3 and 4 all killed as much time as possible as well.  The screen announced that the blinds would go up.  Seat 4 should have called since it wouldn't matter to his stack and he might win the pot.  He folded instead and the BB squared off against seat 1 who turned over AQ.  He won the hand and pulled in about $2000 in chips to go up to $2500.  The BB took the rest and edged up to about $5,000.  The blinds and antes were already in the pot before the numbers above. The blinds go up and seat 6 gets tagged for $3,000 as the BB.  The table begins to stall again and I try to write a post that this is unnecessary, only to discover that the chat has been turned OFF!!!  I am furious as the table stalls and it goes around again.  This time, Seat 6 figures it out and goes all in from the BB.  He gets the pot, giving him over 9,000 in chips.  The blinds go up again because each hand is taking over 5 minutes from the stalling.  Seat 7 must post $4,000 in the BB and seat 6 posts $2,000.  The antes are $100.  Seat 8 realizes what has happened and goes all in utg.  Dang, I had J 9 and was going to do that myself.  I fold, as does everyone else and seat 8 win the pot which enables him to survive the blinds which go up to $6,000 BB and $3,000 SB which seat 7 now must post.  I am utg but get an awful hand, 2 4 offsuit and finally decide to go all in from the BB instead of now.  I fold, it folds around and seat 8 takes it again.  The blinds hold at $6,000 for the next hand and I should be the BB....BUT WAIT!!!  PokerStars has moved seat 7, who should have been the button, to another table and moved the button ahead to seat 8, making me the SB and making seat 1 the BB which put him all in for the next hand.  The tourney has been hand-for-hand which means only a few players need to go out.  I am going to call the blinds and take him out if possible with my 6 4 offsuit, since I don't have to risk anymore chips to do so.  But instead, seat 8 moves ALL-IN!!!!  I can't call because he has me covered.  Strange move.  They turn over their cards and seat 1 shows Q 7 while seat 8 shows K7.  Both K and Q hit the board and seat 1 is eliminated, on the bubble, ending the tourney and giving me a ticket to the Sunday Million$.  But I realized that these clowns almost knocked me out by using the blinds to crush me.  It would have worked if I didn't catch a break.  I would have gone out that last hand and seat 1 would have survived.  Seats 6 and 8 especially, by slow playing, put themselves in a position where the blinds threatened to take them out.  Both played correctly, going all in when they were low, but either could have run into a real hand, AA, KK, AK by another player, such as myself, who would have taken them out.  It made no sense, but they believed the chat writer in seat 5.  I see something different every day.

Dear Stupid.....

I'm sorry you lost all of your money today.  Of course, you didn't lose it to me so I am not really that sorry.  But I played at the same table as you today and watched you lose all of your money.  Did you ever ask yourself why?  The reason was because you played very, very poorly.  Stupid even.  Let's go over a hand that DID involve me and perhaps you will see why.

I was UTG and raised 4xBB for $16.  I had been playing at this table for quite some time and had about $500 in front of me.  The hand folded around to you in the SB and you went all-in for a total of $54.  Why?  Several players at the table had been playing pretty tight and only raising pre-flop with solid, premium hands, I was one of them.  What did you think I could have had?  AA? KK?  Certainly AK, AQ, maybe, just maybe, AJ suited, also QQ.  But what else?  Suited connectors?  Don't think so!  Small pairs?  Doubtful with that raise.  No, you should have instantly put me on the hands just mentioned and played your hand accordingly.  Why do you think everyone else folded to you? 

Instead, you pushed in and I had to consider whether or not to call your $38 raise.  Hmmm, I have $16 already in the pot, there is another $4 BB that folded and is dead, the pot was $36 before you pushed and is now $74.  I am getting close to 3-1 if I call and you can't put more money into it.  My AK is suited clubs and I even have a slight chance against either AA or KK if you have that.  But, of course, I already KNOW that you DON'T have either of those because you would not push with those hands, you would raise and try to get more money in pre-flop.  This is an easy call as I am 90% sure I have the best hand now, and you have committed everything to a draw.

The flop came 9c-Jh-Js which didn't do much for me but I don't really care.  When the Qc fell on the turn, I realised it gave me a great draw on the river since I now had two over cards, a flush draw, and a straight draw.   Wow for me, but they are all draws, of course, and you would still be ahead if you had a lowly pair of twos or threes.  The last card turned out to be the Jc, giving me a flush but also putting JJJ on board which meant that I would lose to any pair, 9,  Q or the last J.  You turned over A 9 offsuit and took the pot with a full house, JJJ 99.

You couldn't have played the hand worse, but you won.  You doubled your money, played a bit longer and were wiped out when you called another player that had KK and your QJ paired the Q on the flop. 

Sometimes Stupid Wins.  It's just one of those things in poker that you have to accept and even appreciate.

But if I were you, I would not count on it.

I eventually ended my session with a small profit.  You lost your entire buy-in.  It wasn't the cards, or luck.  It was your play.  I didn't say anything during play as I don't think that is wise under any circumstance.  But you are a bad player and need to get better soon.  I don't WANT you to get better.  In fact I want you to stay bad and play at my table as often as possible.  I need players like you to make money in the game.  So bring your wallet and come on back.

PokerStars Balance:

March 16:   $1,932.22

March 15:     1,457.22

March 14:     2,127.92

Starting Hands......

If you are tight, like me, then you know that one of the keys to winning is careful slection of the hands you choose to enter pots with.  I am usually the tightest player at the table.  Not always mind you, but usually.  My general hand selection starts pretty tight, tightens up further if the table is loose, loosens up considerably if the table is tight, and adjusts to the game and players as we play.  My working hand is A J.  Beginning in the first three postions, UTG, UTG+1 and UTG+2, I will generally enter pots with AJ or better.  Whether I limp or raise will be determined by what I know of the rest of the players at the table and any hands I have observed before sitting down to play.  If I am in the next seat, seat 6 or UTG+4, I am usually sticking with the same AJ starting hand, but now I add in the factor that the players before me have either entered the pot or folded to me and I use that as well.  If it is folded to me I might consider taking a stab with AT, A9 or even weaker hands like KJ or JT.  I'm probably not stealing early on in a session yet, until I find out a bit more about my opponents.  And when I get that info I am more likely to steal from the last three seats to act; the hi-jack, the cutoff and the button.

Also, generally speaking, I prefer to raise entering the pot.  4xBB seems to be my favorite amount as it does two things, folds hands behind me that aren't very strong and were only looking to see a cheap flop and catch a break.  Also, it puts some money in the pot if anyone calls, although it also tells me they probably have a decent hand as well.  I will limp into pots if I have a marginal hand that I wish to throw away if raised.  Generally, these are small pocket pairs, such as 22-66.  I may not really want to play them, but players haven't been raising behind me so I might as well limp and try  to catch a set.  I won't limp with AA or KK from any position on the table, ever.  Raise or re-raise with it every time, no exceptions.  Yesterday I was playing and had AA in the BB.  It folded around to the SB who completed the blind.  I raised and he folded.  Why give him a chance to catch two pair or trips?  The very next hand I got AA in the SB and it again folded around to me.  I raised and the BB folded.  Too bad, unlucky....but I am not going to limp in and let them see a flop for free.

Note that we have made a new PokerStars balance high for the year:

March 13:   $1,897.72

March 12:     1,373.95